Indicators of genocide

INTRODUCTION: Genocide and war were the ranking causes of preventable death in the 20^th century. Research has shown that organised violence develops in stages from the first stage (loss of opportunities for the persecuted group) to the last stages (loss of existence, loss of memory). Several concepts of stages exist. Until now data are scattered and remain often un-catalogued within countries. Accurate empirical estimates of the burden of organised violence are necessary for anticipatory planning of prevention. We intend to provide a comprehensive set of early indicators and to introduce epidemiological tools for describing and understanding the historical and spatial organisation of organised violence. METHODS:   Because each stage of organised violence has its own indicators, stages can be assessed with standardised measures by measuring specific indicators like i.e. percentage of weapons in a country and number of riots. We present geographical information systems (GIS) combined with sociological and psychological methods as a new interdisciplinary violence surveillance system to map and analyse rates and distributions of genocide indicators.  RESULTS: Historical examples i.e. from Germany, from the Soviet Union, from Kampuchea show the utility of this method. Other actual examples will be given in the presentation and countries will be analysed with the standardised set of indicators. CONCLUSIONS: Case studies show GIS systems can be useful for scoring profiles of risk, based on a priory defined quantitative criteria. But there is a need for safeguards against abuse, stereotyping, using models for hating up situations. Genocide and violence control programmes could operate within this framework for mapping organised violence at early stages collecting in a standardised way data to prevent violence and to identify settings at risk.