FIREARMS-RELATED MORTALITY AND LIFE EXPECTANCY IN MEXICO

INTRODUCTION:  The violence in Mexico has caused a high number of victims, mostly caused by the use of firearms. This paper analyzes the trend of firearms-related mortality in Mexico in last 20 years and their impact on life expectancy of Mexico and its 32 states in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010 triennia.

METHODS:  Based on official death and population data, trends of firearms-related mortality rates by age and gender between 1990 and 2011 were analyzed; abridged life tables in Mexico and its states were constructed for the triennia studied. Life expectancy and years of life expectancy lost (YLEL) for population aged 15 to 75 were calculated -through Arriaga's method- by selected causes (homicide, suicide, accidents, legal interventions and events of undetermined intent by firearms; diabetes mellitus and traffic accidents) and age groups in each triennia.

RESULTS:  Firearms-related mortality rate in 2011 is the highest in the analyzed period; male firearms-related mortality rates are clearly higher than female rates. Between 1998–2000 and 2008–2010 triennia, YLEL due to firearms-related mortality increased nationally (from 0.22 to 0.36 years) and in 22 states. In three states, the YLEL in 2008–2010 exceeded one year, with the state of Chihuahua standing out at 2.72 years. In the 12 states where life expectancy declined between the two triennia, the YLEL due to firearms-related mortality increased. In 2011, firearms-related mortality was the leading cause of death in age group 15–24. YLEL due to firearm in 2008-2010 (0.36) is higher than YLEL by traffic accidents (0.22).

CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the firearms-related mortality rate, especially among young people, is impeding an increase in life expectancy in Mexico. In several states, such as Chihuahua and Sinaloa, this violence appears to be the main reason for the decline in life expectancy among people aged 15 to 75.