Tropical Climatic Variability and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Incidence in the city of Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia: An Ecological Study of 10-Years Data (2003-2012)
The city of Padang is located in the equator line on the west coast of Sumatra with the tropical climatic zone, a natural habitat for Aedes mosquitoes, and the principal vector of dengue viruses. It has a potentially and vulnerable area with a high morbidity and mortality of DHF.
METHODS:
An ecological study was conducted, using data from various relevant governmental departments. Data regarding monthly DHF reported cases by months, monthly total rainfall, rainy days, wind velocity, monthly average temperature and average relative humidity from January 2003-Desember 2012 (10 years) in Padang City, West Sumatra, Indonesia. A time series analysis model with the equation DHF incidence = constant + trend + cyclic/seasonal effect + climatic factors was applied to demonstrate the effect of tropical climatic variability on DHF incidence.
RESULTS:
Out of 120 months examined, an increase in DHF incidence was showed outbreaks were four times. Minimum temperatures show that a similar pattern after one year, mostly in the end of the year. Result of the model showed that an increase in DHF incidence was predicted with the tropical climatic variability and seasonal effect, but the escalation of cases trend was increased in early year.
CONCLUSIONS:
The tropical climate variability are directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission. Periodically, assessing exposure to climatic variables is complex and assessing climate change vulnerability is important in the future.