Breast cancer prevalence in Australia: predicting future health care needs

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer places a heavy burden on the Australian healthcare system, but information about the actual number of women living with breast cancer and their current or future health service needs is limited. We used existing population-based data and innovative statistical methods to address this critical research question in a well defined geographic region.  

METHODS: Breast cancer prevalence were estimated from cancer incidence and follow-up data from the population-based New South Wales (NSW) central cancer registry (1994-2007) of Australia using the PIAMOD software (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel). Prevalence for 2008-2017 was projected based on the modelled incidence and survival and then divided into phases of care prevalence according to the different stages of the survivorship trajectory. 

RESULTS: It is estimated that the number of women in NSW living with a breast cancer diagnosis will increase by approximately 31%, from 51,264 in 2007 to 67,291 by 2017. The majority of these breast cancer survivors will require continued monitoring (33,017) or be long-term survivors (27,696). About 9.5% will require active treatment (either initial therapy, or treatment for recurrence or second cancer) and 2% will need end of life care due to breast cancer. 

CONCLUSIONS: Extrapolating these projections to the national Australian population would equate to 207,050 women living with breast cancer in Australia in 2017, many of whom will require active treatment or post-treatment monitoring. Thus, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required.