TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEPTOSPIROSIS AND OCCURRENCE OF FLOODING RAINS IN THE CITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL, 2007-2012

Introduction: The objective of this study is to examine the effect of the average monthly precipitation on the risk of leptospirosis in the city of Rio de Janeiro between 2007 and 2012.

Methods: This is an analytical ecological study conducted in the city of Rio de Janeiro, whose outcome variable was the number of leptospirosis cases per month, and the independent variable was the average monthly rainfall for the 32 monitoring stations per year. We chose to model the relationship between leptospirosis cases and the effect of rain by building a generalized linear model using a negative binomial distribution.

Results: The precipitation - month lag proved to be a strong explanatory factor for the number of leptospirosis cases. This study indicates that the average monthly precipitation may constitute an indicator that allows the execution of actions in order to prepare the health sector for the probable increase in cases of this disease.

Conclusion: Therefore , it is the interaction between the work of surveillance , especially one made by situation rooms in periods of crisis , and instances of risk management of environmental monitoring , to increase capacity to respond to natural disasters in the municipality of Rio de January.